College of Charleston

Conference:	CAA
Expected RPI:	57.0
Current RPI:	57
Expected SOS:	199
Current SOS:	199
Current Record:	24-7
Expected Record:	24-7
Current Conf Record:	17-4
Expected Conf Record:	17-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	16-3
Current OOC Record:	7-3
Expected OOC Record:	7-3
Expected OOC RPI:	138
Expected OOC SOS:	312

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
24-7	57.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for College of Charleston.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Siena (299.0)	MAAC	H	68-60	W	100%
11-13	Wichita St. (16.0)	Amer	A	81-63	L	0%
11-18	Charlotte (323.0)	CUSA	A	72-81	W	100%
11-22	Cal Poly (305.0)	BW	N	68-73	L	0%
11-23	Sam Houston St. (206.0)	Slnd	N	49-59	W	100%
11-30	Western Carolina (215.0)	SC	H	69-60	W	100%
12-4	High Point (273.0)	BSth	H	70-58	W	100%
12-16	Rhode Island (19.0)	A10	A	68-62	L	0%
12-19	South Carolina St. (331.0)	MEAC	H	80-64	W	100%
12-22	Coastal Carolina (246.0)	SB	A	65-67	W	100%
12-30	Towson (153.0)	CAA	H	73-62	W	100%
1-2	Delaware (233.0)	CAA	H	93-78	W	100%
1-5	Drexel (242.0)	CAA	A	87-82	L	0%
1-7	Towson (153.0)	CAA	A	73-62	L	0%
1-11	Northeastern (55.0)	CAA	H	82-66	W	100%
1-13	Elon (205.0)	CAA	A	63-58	L	0%
1-18	UNC Wilmington (245.0)	CAA	H	80-76	W	100%
1-20	Hofstra (121.0)	CAA	H	76-70	W	100%
1-25	Delaware (233.0)	CAA	A	54-62	W	100%
1-27	James Madison (272.0)	CAA	H	66-59	W	100%
2-1	Northeastern (55.0)	CAA	A	64-69	W	100%
2-3	Hofstra (121.0)	CAA	A	85-86	W	100%
2-8	William & Mary (94.0)	CAA	H	82-77	W	100%
2-10	Drexel (242.0)	CAA	H	89-67	W	100%
2-15	James Madison (272.0)	CAA	A	78-81	W	100%
2-17	UNC Wilmington (245.0)	CAA	A	74-88	W	100%
2-22	Elon (205.0)	CAA	H	79-58	W	100%
2-24	William & Mary (94.0)	CAA	A	114-104	L	0%
3-4	Drexel (242.0)	CAA	N	66-59	W	100%
3-5	William & Mary (94.0)	CAA	N	83-73	W	100%
3-6	Northeastern (55.0)	CAA	N	83-76	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

College of Charleston's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

College of Charleston's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against College of Charleston.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
College of Charleston	CAA	26.61	26.61	82.44	82.44	17.27	17.27
Northeastern	CAA	5.90	5.90	75.86	75.86	3.05	3.05
William & Mary	CAA	5.86	5.86	61.54	61.54	1.35	1.35
Drexel	CAA	5.85	5.85	37.93	37.93	-1.41	-1.41
Delaware	CAA	4.36	4.36	41.38	41.38	-0.75	-0.75
UNC Wilmington	CAA	4.36	4.36	32.14	32.14	-1.56	-1.56
James Madison	CAA	4.33	4.33	31.03	31.03	-1.64	-1.64
Towson	CAA	4.31	4.31	53.57	53.57	0.31	0.31
Hofstra	CAA	4.30	4.30	64.29	64.29	1.23	1.23
Elon	CAA	4.28	4.28	39.29	39.29	-0.92	-0.92
High Point	BSth	1.75	1.75	42.31	42.31	-0.27	-0.27
Charlotte	CUSA	1.69	1.69	18.52	18.52	-1.07	-1.07
Siena	MAAC	1.67	1.67	25.81	25.81	-0.81	-0.81
Western Carolina	SC	1.64	1.64	37.93	37.93	-0.40	-0.40
Cal Poly	BW	1.61	1.61	21.43	21.43	-0.92	-0.92
Coastal Carolina	SB	1.61	1.61	39.29	39.29	-0.35	-0.35
Rhode Island	A10	1.61	1.61	77.42	77.42	0.88	0.88
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	1.61	1.61	53.57	53.57	0.12	0.12
South Carolina St.	MEAC	1.61	1.61	27.59	27.59	-0.72	-0.72
Wichita St.	Amer	1.61	1.61	77.42	77.42	0.88	0.88
Furman	SC	0.29	0.29	67.74	67.74	0.10	0.10
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.25	0.25	78.12	78.12	0.14	0.14
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.21	0.21	77.42	77.42	0.12	0.12
La Salle	A10	0.18	0.18	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Radford	BSth	0.17	0.17	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Hampton	MEAC	0.16	0.16	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.16	0.16	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.16	0.16	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
UCF	Amer	0.16	0.16	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
George Mason	A10	0.16	0.16	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.16	0.16	75.00	75.00	0.08	0.08
Davidson	A10	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Manhattan	MAAC	0.16	0.16	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.15	0.15	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Houston	Amer	0.15	0.15	78.79	78.79	0.09	0.09
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.15	0.15	36.36	36.36	-0.04	-0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.15	0.15	78.12	78.12	0.09	0.09
Temple	Amer	0.15	0.15	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.14	0.14	13.33	13.33	-0.10	-0.10
Marshall	CUSA	0.14	0.14	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
The Citadel	SC	0.14	0.14	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Appalachian St.	SB	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Boston University	Pat	0.13	0.13	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola MD	Pat	0.13	0.13	26.67	26.67	-0.06	-0.06
Mercer	SC	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.13	0.13	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Vermont	AE	0.13	0.13	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Cornell	Ivy	0.13	0.13	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.12	0.12	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Campbell	BSth	0.11	0.11	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Wofford	SC	0.11	0.11	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.11	0.11	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
Lamar	Slnd	0.11	0.11	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
UTSA	CUSA	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
South Florida	Amer	0.11	0.11	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	MAAC	0.10	0.10	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.10	0.10	73.53	73.53	0.05	0.05
Robert Morris	NEC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.09	0.09	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.09	0.09	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Little Rock	SB	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
TCU	B12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Texas St.	SB	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Chattanooga	SC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SB	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
LSU	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	6.67	6.67	-0.07	-0.07
Yale	Ivy	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
SMU	Amer	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	Amer	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Massachusetts	A10	0.08	0.08	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Notre Dame	ACC	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
NJIT	ASun	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.06	0.06	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Hawaii	BW	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Idaho	BSky	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Army	Pat	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	15.62	15.62	-0.04	-0.04
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
UMBC	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Valparaiso	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
VMI	SC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Memphis	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.02	0.02
North Texas	CUSA	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.02	-0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	16.13	16.13	-0.02	-0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02